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Monday, August 29, 2011

MLB Postseason Predictions

With the MLB postseason rapidly approaching and with only one or two real meaningful division races remaining, I felt like now was a good time to make my postseason predictions.

AL East Winner: This is a painful one, but I'm going to have to say it's going to the Boston Red Sox.  That all may change pending how this week's series plays out between the Yankees and Red Sox, but currently the Red Sox hold a two game lead over their New York rivals and are demonstrating a stronger pitching rotation.  The Yankees have one clear-cut postseason starter, CC Sabathia.  After that, everything is up for grabs.  The Red Sox are tough at home and manage to just get things done when they count.  Very rarely do they drop games to lesser opponents and are capable of going on a seven or eight game winning streak.  Now only if they could somehow get John Lackey to pitch well without the need of seven runs of support per game.

AL Central Winner: The Detroit Tigers.  Their lead is six games over the Chicago White Sox and 6.5 over the Cleveland Indians.  They don't have the greatest pitching rotation 1-5, but they certainly have the best No. 1 in the game in Justin Verlander.  The inevitable AL Cy Young winner will stop any slump that they have from here on out and will give them real confidence to get that early 1-0 series lead come playoff time.  Sorry Chicago and Cleveland fans, this ones over.

AL West Winner: This one isn't quite over, but after back-to-back convincing series victories over the Angels, the Texas Rangers look like the favorite to win the division.  Their starting rotation is starting to blossom and they have a potent offense that can explode on any given night.  That being said, the Angels aren't ready to give up on this race yet.  Only three games back, they seemingly have the best rotation in the American league, with Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana.  However, their "key" veterans in Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, and Torii Hunter just aren't producing.  Howie Kendrick is having a breakout year, but he alone won't be enough to catch the Rangers.


NL East Winner: Was this ever in question?  Maybe early on when the Atlanta Braves and Florida Marlins were playing good ball, but since then, the Marlins have fallen off the map and Atlanta has kept up a hot squad, but the Philadelphia Phillies are in a league of their own.  Even when Roy Oswalt went down, replacement Vance Worley stepped in and is becoming part of the NL Rookie of the Year award talk.  Their offense isn't dominating, at times very inconsistent, but can easily put up a big number on any given night.  It's just a matter of how often they can do that.

NL Central Winner: Remember in mid-July when this was a four team race?  Yeah, not anymore.  At the All-Star break, there were four teams within four games of the Central lead.  Since then, the Milwaukee Brewers have opened up a 10.5 gam lead, leaving the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Cincinnati Reds in the dust.  They own a league-best 50-16 record at home and have the best two man power hitting combo in the National League with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.  And since the National League won the All-Star game, that impressive home-field record will help them out substantially WHEN they make it to the World Series (hint hint).

NL West Winner: I like the Arizona Diamondbacks to hang on and win this division.  They have a four game lead over the reigning World Series champion San Francisco Giants.  The upstart Diamondbacks are playing great baseball, led by NL MVP candidate Justin Upton.  Meanwhile, along the bay, the Giants can't seem to get a nice streak going and their closer Brian Wilson is on the DL, forcing them to go on a closer-by-committee basis.  This one seems all but over.


Wild Card Winners: This one isn't really even in question, with both league leaders owning a lead of over six games.  The Yankees are 6.5 games up on the Tampa Bay Rays, while the Braves have an 8.5 game lead over the Giants.  Both teams could cause problems for division winners come playoff time because they are both playing outstanding baseball, just see themselves playing in each league's toughest division.  The Yankees' offense has never been a question, leading the league in runs scored and home runs, but have no clear-cut options for their playoff rotation, aside from CC Sabathia.  As for the Braves, they can be dangerous, they're just hoping Jair Jurrjens can return to his first half form, prior to going on the disabled list.

World Series Matchup and Winner: I like this year's World Series to come down to the Boston Red Sox and the Milwaukee Brewers.  Once again, I have had to put my Yankees' bias aside and go with the best team and I like the Red Sox out of the AL.  Meanwhile, I have been high on the Brewers since day one.  They have an American League lineup in the National League.  Everyone thinks the Phillies are the team to beat with their video-game-like pitching rotation, but the Brewers have a good one of their own.  Zach Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, and Shaun Marcum pack a nice punch at the top of their rotation and Randy Wolf is a reliable No. 4 if it comes down to it.  I don't think that the Red Sox have as good a rotation or offense as the Brew-Crew.  And don't forget about the National League having home-field advantage and that outstanding home-field record the Brewers possess.  Therefore, I like the Milwaukee Brewers to win the World Series.

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